Preseason Rankings
Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#23
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#235
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.9% 3.1% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 7.3% 18.1% 4.0%
Top 4 Seed 17.3% 18.1% 4.0%
Top 6 Seed 27.7% 18.1% 4.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.3% 63.9% 35.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.7% 61.4% 33.2%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.8
.500 or above 92.2% 93.3% 75.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.1% 67.5% 43.5%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.8% 1.9%
First Four6.0% 5.9% 7.1%
First Round59.4% 61.0% 31.9%
Second Round39.8% 41.3% 16.1%
Sweet Sixteen20.1% 21.0% 5.4%
Elite Eight10.3% 10.8% 1.9%
Final Four5.0% 5.2% 1.1%
Championship Game2.3% 2.4% 0.8%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.1 - 5.32.1 - 5.3
Quad 1b1.8 - 1.63.9 - 6.9
Quad 23.7 - 1.77.6 - 8.5
Quad 35.9 - 1.013.6 - 9.6
Quad 46.6 - 0.220.2 - 9.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 185   Lehigh W 82-68 94%    
  Nov 13, 2018 105   Stephen F. Austin W 77-68 86%    
  Nov 17, 2018 299   Bethune-Cookman W 90-69 99%    
  Nov 22, 2018 166   La Salle W 79-66 88%    
  Nov 23, 2018 91   Fresno St. W 74-66 75%    
  Nov 25, 2018 52   Seton Hall W 75-72 62%    
  Nov 28, 2018 140   Rutgers W 72-61 89%    
  Dec 01, 2018 122   Yale W 78-68 80%    
  Dec 04, 2018 125   @ Penn W 76-66 73%    
  Dec 19, 2018 312   Houston Baptist W 89-67 98%    
  Dec 22, 2018 266   Florida Atlantic W 80-61 97%    
  Dec 29, 2018 254   Campbell W 81-63 96%    
  Jan 03, 2019 38   North Carolina St. W 79-77 69%    
  Jan 06, 2019 54   @ Louisville W 75-71 52%    
  Jan 09, 2019 15   @ Florida St. L 76-77 37%    
  Jan 12, 2019 115   Wake Forest W 78-68 86%    
  Jan 19, 2019 6   North Carolina L 75-80 43%    
  Jan 24, 2019 12   @ Syracuse L 65-67 33%    
  Jan 27, 2019 15   Florida St. L 76-77 57%    
  Jan 30, 2019 20   Virginia Tech L 74-75 58%    
  Feb 02, 2019 2   @ Virginia L 58-64 23%    
  Feb 06, 2019 49   Notre Dame W 71-68 70%    
  Feb 09, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 75-80 25%    
  Feb 13, 2019 18   Clemson L 68-69 59%    
  Feb 17, 2019 78   @ Boston College W 77-71 61%    
  Feb 23, 2019 113   Georgia Tech W 71-62 85%    
  Feb 26, 2019 115   @ Wake Forest W 78-68 71%    
  Mar 02, 2019 4   @ Duke L 74-79 25%    
  Mar 05, 2019 167   Pittsburgh W 74-61 91%    
  Mar 08, 2019 20   @ Virginia Tech L 74-75 39%    
Projected Record 20.2 - 9.8 9.8 - 8.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 1.5 0.2 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.9 0.4 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.3 1.0 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.2 8th
9th 0.4 2.2 4.0 1.9 0.2 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 2.4 0.3 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.3 9.1 10.5 11.4 12.4 12.1 10.4 8.1 5.9 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.8% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 82.9% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 59.8% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1
14-4 19.2% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 51.2% 48.8% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.1% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 2.3 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.9% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 3.2 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.1% 100.0% 13.1% 86.8% 4.7 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.4% 99.5% 8.1% 91.4% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-7 12.1% 93.3% 6.8% 86.5% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 92.8%
10-8 12.4% 81.6% 5.2% 76.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.3 80.6%
9-9 11.4% 60.2% 3.3% 56.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.6 58.8%
8-10 10.5% 29.0% 3.2% 25.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 26.7%
7-11 9.1% 6.4% 1.3% 5.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 5.2%
6-12 6.3% 2.4% 1.9% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.5%
5-13 3.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
4-14 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
3-15 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 62.3% 6.4% 55.9% 6.7 2.9 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.9 4.5 7.0 6.3 7.2 6.0 5.9 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 37.7 59.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.8 21.2